An addition to Evolution vs ID post

The following is actually a comment that was added to the Evollution vs ID post below.


Glad to get a comment. Actually, I am not in favor of ID. My little essay is meant to be only the first part of an exploration of the subject. I am an engineer too but not a statitician. I would like to find out how large the first living thing was, or even if there is a clear marker between say a mostly inert virus and something a little livelier. Or even how large the first viroid was (these are even smaller than viruses). Then, how much space is needed for the viroid to form and how long it would take? Then, what was the distribution of basic parts around the world?

For example, if one cc of space is needed, and 1 second of time, and if the entire surface of the ocean to a depth of one foot is available for creating the viroid, what are the odds that it can occur spontaneously? From another site, I learned that organic type material started raining down on earth about one billion years after earth was formed. Life definitely emerged before another 3.5 billion years passed. Then "cc"s times seconds in 3.5 billion years is a measure of how many chances the viroid has to form. And one cc may be way too big a volumn. One mol of water has 6x 10 exp 23 molecules.

All the above numbers are just rough--probably very rough--estimates. Maybe some other people can come up with better estimates.

How many chances are needed before something possible becomes something probable or certain?