Can Democats Win Congress in 2006?

The congressional elections of 2006 ought to be a landslide for Democrats but this is not likely to happen. For example, from the NY Times of 11.20.05 (“The Center No Longer Holds”) the Senate’s 55 Republicans represent 131 million people while the 44 Democrats represent 161 million people. In other words, each Republican Senator represents 2.38 million people and each Democratic Senator represents 3.65 million people. This is because the majority of the small-population states vote Republican while the big states vote mostly Democratic. And of course each state has two senators, which favors the small states, and this is not going to change.

The situation in the House of Representatives shows this effect in congressional seats. Bush got 50.7% of the popular vote in 2004 but 59% of congressional seats. Democrats got approximately 49.3% of the popular vote but only 41% of congressional seats.

So does Congress today really represent the voice of the people or doesn’t it? If Democrats are going to make any significant change in the House in 2006, they are going to have to go very local and really work on individual members. This is because congressmen and senators get reelected almost automatically. Congressmen have gerrymandered districts working for them while senators have the population distribution working for them.

One thing the Democrats may be able to use effectively against Republicans is a republican tactic called “Catch and Release”. GOP congressmen are coerced into voting for bad congressional bills until enough votes are available to insure passage of the bill; then some congressmen from somewhat liberal Republican districts are allowed to change their vote so that it looks as though they are against the bill. Democrats should research this area carefully and use it against republican incumbents in the upcoming election.